Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, August 10th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Four game main slate starting at 6:40PM EST, and two games could have some troublesome rain. Four of the eight teams currently have projected run totals above five, while the other four teams are below four, so there’s no shortage of offenses to target, along with SPs to choose from. Let’s get to some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- WSH/PHI could see a batch of storms right after first pitch, so we may get a late start or early delay if they start on time. For the SPs sake, let’s hope they go with a late start and let it all clear up before playing. Temps in the low 70s, with 5-10mph wind out to right center.
- KCR/BOS current forecast has a batch of storms clearing around first pitch, and another batch arriving after the game. If this holds, there should be a window to play in full, although the timing of these storms could cause a late start or an in-game delay if the second batch arrives quicker. Temps in the low 70s, with 10ph wind out to left.
- COL/LAD will be in the low 70s to mid 60s, with a slight breeze to center. STL/TBR is our lone dome game.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Tyler O’Neill has been late scratched with a left knee issue the last two games, but for now he is in the Cardinals lineup. Contreras is getting a day off so Knizner will catch, and Motter is getting a start at 3B with Arenado at DH.
- The Rays will load up on righties against Liberatore, so look for guys like Ramirez, Mead, and Margot in there today. PHI faces another lefty today, so look for a similar lineup as yesterday, although Schwarber could be back at leadoff after sitting yesterday.
- is leading off for Boston against the lefty opener, while Yoshida is getting the day off.
- is likely still out, and against the lefty Blach, look for Rosario to hit cleanup for LAD.
- Boston has a massive 6.5 run total and are my favorite stack today, followed by the Dodgers and their almost 5.9 run total. Philly and Tampa are other top stack options to have coverage of in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- ($10,000) looks like the clear top cash game SP today, as he has a safer pitch count floor and higher strikeout upside compared to the other options. Kershaw ($10,700) and Paxton ($9,700) are pretty similar to me today, as both can always put up a dominant performance, but the weather in Boston and potential limited pitch count for Kershaw has me only considering them in GPPs. ($7,200) is the cheapest SP I would remotely consider for cash games, but again, I’m not fading Nola’s safer floor and higher upside.
- Boston bats remain underpriced and I like using at least 2-4 of them in cash games. ($2,100) is hitting leadoff and is my top value bat of the entire slate. Duvall ($2,900) and Casas ($2,800) are my next favorite values to target, with Devers ($3,600) rounding out a full stack.
- hasn’t had more than 2 strikeouts in each of his last three starts, and has allowed 13 hits over his last 12 IP. This makes LAD another top offense to target in cash games, and they have a nice mix of value and spend-up options. ($2,800) will likely hit clean-up today and is one of my favorite value bats of the slate, while Taylor ($2,600) and Hernandez ($2,400) are other extreme value options to consider. Smith ($3,500) is a solid mid-range option, while Betts ($4,400) is one of the top spend ups today.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Betts on Underdog, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- If you want a couple Philly bats in your main build, I’d go with Castellanos ($3,100), Bohm ($3,200), or Turner ($2,900), as all have the platoon advantage and are swinging pretty hot bats at the moment. From the Rays, I like the prices of Paredes ($3,100), Arozarena ($3,400), Ramirez ($2,700), and Mead ($2,100) if you need to fill a final cash game spot.
- I’m definitely going with Nola ($10,500) as one of my cash game SPs, and I think I’m going to risk Kershaw ($10,200) as my SP2. Littell ($6,900) is again the cheapest I’d consider for SP2, but he likely won’t go over 70-80 pitches, and Paxton ($9,300) is just a bit too pricey for someone with rain concern against a KC team that should start 7-9 righties. Even if Kershaw gets 75-90 pitches, that’s still enough for him to be a top two scoring SP against COL and their 2.6 projected run total today.
- Reyes ($2,600), Duvall ($4,400), and Casas ($3,900) remain my favorite BOS values, and I like trying to fit in Devers ($5,200) if you can.
- Rosario ($4,100), Taylor ($3,400), and Hernandez ($3,000) remain the best LAD values, and either Betts ($6,400) or Smith ($5,500) are top spend-ups if you can fit either.
- Castellanos ($4,600) and Bohm ($4,400) are my favorite p/$ targets from Philly, while Paredes ($4,000), Ramirez ($3,400), and Mead ($2,100) are in play as fill-ins for your final cash game spots if needed.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Getty Images
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